Madeira's Elections - September 2023

Jonas Souto | November 2023 | 5 min read

To the surprise of few people, the recent election in Madeira presented the incumbent social democrats with another victory as has been the case for the past four decades. However, this last election was not business as usual, the absolute majority that PSD, the social democrats, has enjoyed for so long was not achieved and consequently, the party has been forced to form a coalition with a smaller party, CDS, the central right party, as a way to maintain a ruling majority. The socialists, PS, that presented a serious threat in the previous election were probably the biggest losers at the polls. These changes, in my view, all amount to a particular representation of the larger political system within Portugal, as such, I will attempt to provide a more detailed but opinionated review of what exactly this represents.

The social democrats’ hegemony over the region has weakened over the years, specifically after the change in leadership from Alberto João Jardim to Miguel Albuquerque. With the former arguably being the main driving force for the Madeiran wing of the social democrats and its defining member, with much of the support being for the man and not the party itself, this support went as far as him being given almost complete control over the regional party out of fear of him breaking off and creating his own party. This led to the party having distinct characteristics from the main one and occasionally voting on its own in national matters. However, this change in leadership ended the quasi-cult of personality that was in place, much of the leeway that used to be available is now gone and many of the problems that could be ignored before are now going to be picked at by both the voters and the opposition. I would point to the problems that caused this decline for the social democrats as some that plague the national government as well.

The regional ally of the social democrats, CDS, has suffered greatly in the past few years, losing its electorate to parties that better fit their voting intentions, they were once characterized by their conservative stance on most aspects but due to the lack of votes have been reduced to aligning themselves with the social democrats since that allows them to retain some semblance of relevance, this is an option for them in a regional situation, out of necessity, but on the national stage they’ve been reduced to mostly being irrelevant.

The main opposition would be PS, the socialists, who in 2019 stood a decent chance of actually winning in Madeira, even getting considerable wins at a local level. Their increase in popularity came from support from the national wing of PS, that currently governs the country and from presenting themselves as the best way to bring PSD down, appealing to those unhappy with the system in place and essentially offering the premise that whatever the current regional government does that irks people in one way or another they will do differently. In my view, this approach worked in 2019 due to the novelty the socialist national government still had, but the endless stream of scandals since then has probably soured a lot of people on the idea of socialism in Madeira, in the same vein, socialists had headed the Azorean government for the past two decades to a disastrous effect, these were probably among the reasons for their significant drop in popularity over those four years.

In the same vein of opposition, I would consider two parties, JPP, an arguably centrist party that came from a social movement to oppose PSD in local elections, and Chega, the right-wing party that in the mainland opposes PS while hoping for an agreement with PSD, and in Madeira they oppose PSD to gain some of their voters. The former succeeded in gaining some votes by being part of the opposition while still being an alternative to the main parties, those being PS and PSD. Chega on the other hand got its votes by being a more distinctly right-wing alternative to both PSD and CDS, while also campaigning on ending the incumbent government’s corruption and shortcomings. Thus, their success hinges on the shortcomings of PSD.

The liberal party, IL, has struggled to establish an identity besides supporting economic liberalism, as such its main votes come from former CDS voters, and seeing as they were not prevalent within the region, their numbers are limited for now.

The remaining parties that have representation and that warrant mentioning are PAN, BE, and PCP. The first is the Green Party which has little support but has recently agreed to help PSD in government, the specifics of this agreement have yet to be released but since this is a typically left-leaning party it is hard to see how this will pan out. Lastly, the Left Block and the Communist Party, BE and PCP, are both left-wing parties with little support in the region, with BE being mainly dependent on student movements which are largely non-existent in the region and PCP being largely socially conservative and left-wing economically, resulting in it having a hard time in gathering votes in a modern setting.

The main economic activity within the country is tourism and even more so in Madeira due to its natural beauty and history in the sector. For better or worse this sector is where some of the main problems stem from. The large hotel companies in the country hold a great deal of power in national politics and some of them even trace their origins to Madeira, and these family-owned businesses do tend to meddle in politics with little concern for ethics. Thus, it is common to see members of these families involved in government and state businesses. This by itself would not be cause for concern if it did not hurt the general voter, but since Madeira has a rather small population and the tourism industry is so massive, everyone knows someone working in hospitality. In recent years, prices in hospitality have increased and so have profits, as these companies usually advertise in local news, however, wages have not increased while costs of living have done so substantially. Many workers became tired of being overworked due to rising demand in the sector and since wages have remained stagnant, many became disillusioned and left to find other jobs or were let go, this would spell trouble for the hospitality industry but due to agreements made with the national and regional governments, local workers have begun to be replaced by an increasing amount of migrants that accept the lower wages. This is not a new concept for anyone versed in economics but it is a problem that also affects the whole of the country, an influx of migrants increases rents and housing prices in areas where these activities are focused. Along with this issue, the country itself, not just Madeira, has begun to attract wealthier tourists looking to move to the country which has resulted in the current housing being built to be aimed at the extremely wealthy rather than the average person. These problems as stated are not regional ones but rather national ones, they have caused the loss of popularity for the social democrats in Madeira but also social strife in the mainland. Whether the national or the regional government is to blame is not clear but what is evident is that this situation is certainly cause for concern for the Madeiran wing of PSD. The solution to the regional problem does not exactly lie with the socialists, the second largest party since their representatives usually include members of the families of wealthy hoteliers, as does PSD, and it is not likely to lie with the remaining parties since their initiatives do not establish a clear path to deal with the problems faced.

In sum, the situation in Madeira is an illustration of the national political system at large but with the roles in government largely reversed. The problems that face the country are also present in the region and as such it can serve as a blueprint on how to fix them, even though it does not seem like these problems will be fixed any time soon. The political machinations of some parties are evident in the way they act in both the national and regional settings, the same approach in simply acting as opposition or not altering their approach at all shows a lack of adaptability that is true for several parties. As it currently stands, I would not say that the current government in Madeira is the best that it can be nor the best it has ever been, but given the methods of the opposition, whether that be simply asserting themselves as an alternative or being naysayers, I doubt a solution to the current problems would lie with these parties since their main platform is simply to proudly affirm they will not do the same as those in power rather than concrete legislation.